Terms of Service

The Probative (“The Probative,” “we,” “us,” or “our”) is an independent equity-research publication operated from Montréal, Québec, Canada. You can reach us at hello@theprobative.com or by mail at 1610 Rue Sanguinet, Montréal, QC, Canada. By creating an account, subscribing, or otherwise using the service, you agree to these Terms and to our Privacy Policy.

The Probative is a paid research letter and members’ portal covering US mid-cap public equities. We publish written analysis, a model paper portfolio (a “ledger”), cited memos, a public scoreboard of past verdicts, and related commentary. Everything we publish is general information and opinion for your own research. It is not, and must not be relied upon as, personalized investment, financial, legal, tax, or accounting advice, an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security, or a recommendation tailored to your circumstances. We are not a registered investment adviser, broker-dealer, or portfolio manager, and no advisory relationship is created by your use of the service.

Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Past performance — ours or any security’s — does not predict future results. Price targets, “fair value” estimates, and upside figures are opinions, not promises. The model portfolio is a paper portfolio and does not reflect real trading, fees, taxes, or slippage. You are solely responsible for your own investment decisions and should consult a licensed professional before acting. We may hold or transact in any security we discuss; our holdings are disclosed but our timing may differ from yours.

Member subscriptions are offered as monthly or annual plans at the prices shown at checkout, in US dollars, processed by Stripe. Monthly and annual plans renew automatically at the then-current price until cancelled. You can cancel at any time from your account’s billing portal, effective at the end of the current period — we do not pro-rate partial periods except where required by law. We may change prices on a going-forward basis with notice; changes do not affect the current paid period.

New annual members may request a full refund within 30 days of their initial purchase by emailing hello@theprobative.com— no questions asked. Monthly members may cancel at any time to stop future billing. The guarantee applies to a member’s first purchase only and may be withheld in cases of abuse.

Access is personal to you. Keep your sign-in secure; you are responsible for activity under your account. We use single-use email sign-in links rather than passwords. Notify us promptly of any unauthorized use.

All content — memos, the ledger, the track record, the methodology paper, copy, and design — is owned by The Probative and protected by law. Your subscription grants you a personal, non-transferable, revocable licence to read and use the content for your own purposes. You may not republish, redistribute, resell, scrape, or share paywalled content, or use it to train or build a competing product or model. Brief, attributed quotation for commentary is permitted.

Do not misuse the service: no unauthorized access, no automated bulk extraction, no sharing of member credentials or content, and nothing unlawful. We may suspend or terminate access for breach.

We rely on third parties to operate — including Stripe (payments), Resend and Beehiiv (email), and Cloudflare (hosting and delivery). Their handling of your data is governed by their own terms and our Privacy Policy. We are not responsible for third-party services or for SEC/EDGAR source data we cite.

The service is provided “as is” and “as available,” without warranties of any kind, express or implied, including accuracy, completeness, merchantability, or fitness for a particular purpose. To the maximum extent permitted by law, The Probative and its operators will not be liable for any indirect, incidental, special, consequential, or exemplary damages, or for any investment losses or lost profits, arising from your use of or reliance on the service. Our total aggregate liability for any claim is limited to the amount you paid us in the 12 months before the claim.

You agree to indemnify and hold harmless The Probative and its operators from claims arising out of your misuse of the service or breach of these Terms.

We may update these Terms; material changes will be posted here with a new date and, where appropriate, emailed to members. Continued use after changes means you accept them. We may modify, suspend, or discontinue any part of the service.

These Terms are governed by the laws of the Province of Québec and the federal laws of Canada applicable there, without regard to conflict-of-laws rules. The courts located in Montréal, Québec have exclusive jurisdiction, subject to any non-waivable rights you have as a consumer.

Questions about these Terms? Email hello@theprobative.com.